{"id":27826,"date":"2021-10-04T11:22:18","date_gmt":"2021-10-04T10:22:18","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/blog.frankfurt-school.de\/?p=27826"},"modified":"2022-01-19T17:04:39","modified_gmt":"2022-01-19T16:04:39","slug":"germanys-federal-election-what-comes-next","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blog.frankfurt-school.de\/de\/germanys-federal-election-what-comes-next\/","title":{"rendered":"Germany’s federal election \u2013 what comes next?"},"content":{"rendered":"

Even though it will be a while\u00a0until we know who\u00a0forms the ruling parties\u00a0in the\u00a020<\/span>th<\/span> German Parliament \u201cBundestag\u201d, the preliminary results of the recent Federal Election indicate some valuable insights into what is next in store for German Politics.\u00a0<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Historically largest parties SPD and CDU\/CSU remain to secure most representation with 25.7% and 24.1% projected votes respectively, with the center-left SPD marginally ahead of the latter, center-right group. It is not surprising in Germany to have multiple parties come so close in their share of votes \u2013 coalition governments have quite popularly been the norm. Since 2013, the German parliament has been formed by a coalition between these two parties, with Angela Merkel (CDU) acting as Chancellor.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

In addition,\u00a0the\u00a0climate control-centered\u00a0leftist\u00a0\u201cGreens,\u201d\u00a0business-oriented\u00a0libertaniarist\u00a0FDP (Federal Democratic Party) and\u00a0right-wing\u00a0extremist\u00a0AfD\u00a0(Alternative for Germany)\u00a0are also set to\u00a0secure representation in the\u00a0Bundestag with\u00a014.8%, 11.5%\u00a0and\u00a010.3%\u00a0votes\u00a0respectively.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Policy implications: party agendas summarized<\/span><\/b>\u00a0<\/span><\/h2>\n

There is certainly to be a fair mix of ideologies\u00a0in the new legislative body.\u00a0The three main domains that are expected to have strongly influenced\u00a0German voters are the\u00a0sustainability and climate policy,\u00a0tax policy,\u00a0and\u00a0foreign policy\u00a0(particularly dealing with refugees and\u00a0modeling\u00a0immigration).<\/span>\u00a0<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

1. Climate policy<\/span><\/b>\u00a0<\/span><\/h2>\n

Climate policy has been at the center of the election\u2019s political agenda\u00a0and\u00a0there\u00a0is\u00a0an overall\u00a0consensus\u00a0between the parties\u00a0about\u00a0heading towards a more climate-neutral future in Germany. Targets are\u00a0to\u00a0increase\u00a0renewable energy use\u00a0and\u00a0achieve\u00a0greenhouse gas-neutrality by 2035-2045\u00a0and while\u00a0the Greens\u00a0and SDP\u00a0advocate intervention to achieve these goals as soon as possible, the\u00a0CDU\/CSU and\u00a0FDP\u00a0call for\u00a0increased\u00a0market-based incentives towards\u00a0the same.\u00a0The agendas of all parties include phasing out coal\u00a0by 2035 or 2045 at the latest, except for\u00a0AfD\u00a0that\u00a0believes that\u00a0envisaging\u00a0a complete switch to renewable energy is unreasonable.\u00a0Overall, there is a clear goal in mind but conflicts\u00a0will\u00a0arise about the balance\u00a0between\u00a0market-based and interventionist approaches towards this.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\u00a02. Tax policy<\/span><\/h2>\n

There is likely to be greater conflict over the issue of taxation in Germany, given the fundamental difference between leftist and rightist approaches. The left-wing parties, SPD and Greens, are inclined towards making the tax system more progressive through higher taxes on high-value assets as well as increased tax relief for lower- and middle-income classes, partly because of the budget deficit incurred due to the pandemic. The CDU\/CSU and FDP remain in opposition over this matter and believe in retaining loose fiscal policy in support of businesses for the economy\u2019s best interests, especially since the impact of the lockdowns on business activity is still fresh.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\u00a03. Refugee asylum and immigration<\/span><\/h2>\n

AfD is most vocally against all refugee asylum and not only wants Germany to close its borders but also radically increase deportation. CDU\/CSU is more liberal about refugee limits and respective family reunification but wants to increase deportation as well. SPD and the Greens appeal to greater humanitarian duties towards asylum seekers and are against any limit on refugees on grounds that it would be unethical to reject support. Likewise, the two parties are also more liberal about deportation.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Unlike the refugee issue, there is strong agreement between all parties about the \u201cSkilled Workers Immigration Act\u201d. The Act has been in place since March 2020 to tackle the shortage of specialists in Germany and makes it easier for skilled workers from outside the EU to settle in Germany by reducing entry qualification barriers and boosting residence permit processes for these groups. All parties agree to improve this further by drawing from the Canadian Model of Immigration which targets limited but specific migration of young qualified immigrants.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/span>Who will rule the new government?<\/span><\/b>\u00a0<\/span><\/h2>\n

There is significant speculation about\u00a0this issue as many coalition combinations are likely.\u00a0At the moment, it\u00a0seems\u00a0most\u00a0probable\u00a0that the SPD\u00a0becomes\u00a0a part of the ruling government with\u00a0their candidate\u00a0Olaf Scholz assuming the position of the new Chancellor, but CDU\/CSU\u00a0also promises full efforts to\u00a0continue as a ruling party\u00a0even though a coalition between SPD and CDU\/CSU is less likely\u00a0this time.\u00a0\u00a0It\u00a0is expected to\u00a0take a few months until this matter gets finalized and Angela Merkel will be\u00a0effectively heading administration until then\u00a0\u2013\u00a0at least\u00a0until Christmas.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Nevertheless, regardless of who forms the ruling government and who the opposition, there is going to be great diversity in the legislative body. Over most issues, there are differences between leftist and rightist ideologies as well as the extent of these within the different parties. While the results indicate an overall inclination towards the left in the new Bundestag, with such close representation ratios and multiple parties holding a significant share, there is sure to be a balanced approach that will involve compromises from both ends.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\n

Any FS student can contribute to the\u00a0EcoPol Journal<\/a>. If you would like to contribute, please send an e-mail to\u00a0ecopol_journal@fs-ecopol.de<\/a>\u00a0with your idea proposal. Any topics that you believe relevant and interesting are welcome.<\/span><\/p>\n

\n

References:<\/p>\n

Ergebnisse\u00a0Bundestagswahlen 2021. (2021,\u00a0September 27). Bundeswahlleiter.\u00a0https:\/\/www.bundeswahlleiter.de\/en\/bundestagswahlen\/2021\/ergebnisse\/bund-99.html<\/span><\/a>\u00a0<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Explained: What the German Parties\u2019\u00a0Tax Pledges mean for you. (2021,\u00a0September\u00a01). The Local.\u00a0https:\/\/www.thelocal.de\/20210901\/explained-what-the-german-parties-tax-pledges-mean-for-you\/<\/span><\/a>\u00a0<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Germany elections: Centre-left claim narrow win over Merkel’s party. (2021, September 27). BBC News.\u00a0https:\/\/www.bbc.com\/news\/world-europe-58698806<\/span><\/a>\u00a0<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Skilled Immigration Act for qualified professionals.\u00a0(2021,\u00a0March\u00a01).\u00a0Federal Office for Migration and Refugees.\u00a0https:\/\/www.bamf.de\/SharedDocs\/Meldungen\/EN\/2021\/210301-am-fachkraefteeinwanderungsgesetz.html<\/span><\/a>\u00a0<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Wer steht zur Wahl?\u00a0(2021). Bundeszentrale f\u00fcr politische Bildung.\u00a0https:\/\/www.bpb.de\/politik\/wahlen\/wer-steht-zur-wahl\/bundestagswahl-2021\/<\/span><\/a>\u00a0<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

What is Canada\u2019s Immigration Policy? (2020, August 3). Council on Foreign Relations. https:\/\/www.cfr.org\/backgrounder\/what-canadas-immigration-policy<\/span><\/a>\u00a0<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Where do German parties stand on refugees asylum and immigration. (2021, September 24). DW.\u00a0https:\/\/www.dw.com\/en\/afd-cdu-spd-where-do-german-parties-stand-on-refugees-asylum-and-immigration\/a-40610988<\/span><\/a>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Wof\u00fcr steht welche Partei? (2021, July 23).\u00a0Mitmischen.de.\u00a0\u00a0https:\/\/www.mitmischen.de\/bundestag-wissen\/artikelseiten\/die-wahl-zum-bundestag\/wofuer-steht-welche-partei<\/span><\/a>\u00a0<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Even though it will be a while\u00a0until we know who\u00a0forms the ruling parties\u00a0in the\u00a020th German Parliament \u201cBundestag\u201d, the preliminary results of the recent Federal Election indicate some valuable insights into what is next in store for German Politics.\u00a0\u00a0 Historically largest parties SPD and CDU\/CSU remain to secure most representation with 25.7% and 24.1% projected votes […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1076,"featured_media":27842,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1253,11],"tags":[2178,148,1877,89],"class_list":["post-27826","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-ecopol-journal","category-fslife","tag-elections","tag-fs-economy-politics","tag-german-politics","tag-politics"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.frankfurt-school.de\/de\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/27826","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.frankfurt-school.de\/de\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.frankfurt-school.de\/de\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.frankfurt-school.de\/de\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1076"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.frankfurt-school.de\/de\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=27826"}],"version-history":[{"count":12,"href":"https:\/\/blog.frankfurt-school.de\/de\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/27826\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":28752,"href":"https:\/\/blog.frankfurt-school.de\/de\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/27826\/revisions\/28752"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.frankfurt-school.de\/de\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/27842"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.frankfurt-school.de\/de\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=27826"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.frankfurt-school.de\/de\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=27826"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.frankfurt-school.de\/de\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=27826"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}